Martes, 19 Junio, 2018

British PM May could lose majority in 8 June election: #YouGov projection

Galeno Paniagua | 04 Junio, 2017, 10:43

The opposition Labour party polled 39 per cent against the Conservatives' 42 per cent. "The latest YouGov survey - so maybe the market should treat it with a pinch of salt - has a mere 3 point gap between Labour and the Tories, the latest example of momentum being with Jeremy Corbyn".

Betting that she would win a strong majority, May called the snap election to strengthen her position at home as she embarked on complicated Brexit negotiations with 27 other members of the European Union.

The cut-and-thrust of campaign politics turned personal while the pound took a hit on Wednesday after an opinion poll suggested a hung Parliament after the June 8 election, which was widely assumed would be easily won by the ruling Conservative Party. Yet today's poll distracts from the many others showing that a Conservative majority remains the most likely outcome, as is our base case.

The 2015 election led to the first majority Conservative government for 18 years - and she would have thrown that power away in the space of two years.

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Their conversation was strictly confined to whether the Paris Climate Accord is good for the country. As part of the deal, Turkey can not benefit from worldwide funds, he said.

That is because markets initially pencilled in an increased Conservative majority - strengthening the Prime Minister's hand politically as she prepares for Brexit negotiations.

"In this election, it is vital that the government is not given a blank cheque for a chaotic, extreme Brexit that would leave our economy".

The Pound has fluctuated between gains and losses over the past 24 hours, buffeted by conflicting projections on the result of the general election next week.

Prime Minister Theresa May has said the "only poll that matters" is the one on June 8 while Labour's Angela Rayner dismissed the research, insisting Labour is "in it to win it".

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But the targets were voluntary, meaning the USA and the almost 200 other nations in the agreement could alter their commitments. The organization's main Twitter page quoted Secretary-General Antonio Guterres as saying, "Climate change is undeniable".

YouGov acknowledged that its predictions were controversial and allowed for a wide margin of error, adding that the samples in each constituency were small.

YouGov's chief, Stephan Shakespeare, told the Times: "The data suggests that there is churn on all fronts, with the Conservatives, Labour and the Liberal Democrats both likely to both lose and gain seats".

The findings again weakened sterling which had earlier fallen nearly a cent against the US dollar on the YouGov model before rising on a Kantar poll which showed May's lead had increased to 10 percentage points.

This stumble, combined with what many saw as a victory for Jeremy Corbyn in showdown television interviews earlier this week, have left the election result far from certain.

Murray in a hurry after straight-set victory
The Scot got the better of his rival to win Olympic gold before losing a five-hour marathon in the Davis Cup semi-finals. Murray is a three-time grand slam title victor and was the runner-up at Roland Garros a year ago .


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